E02 - EARLY PHASE PROJECTS
Choosing the right development concept is a key decision in any oil and gas project, and the decision maker is usually faced with the situation of having to decide between alternative development concepts under significant remaining uncertainty. Choosing the optimal development concept is usually directly linked to the appraisal strategy, the value of information that is revealed and the company risk tolerance profile. Such considerations need to be reflected in the problem structure and overall evaluation in order to move the project forward and to maximise long-term value creation.
This 1-day course focuses on how decision analysis is used in early phase projects and development projects, to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. It shows how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the economic evaluation of each development alternative. Participants will learn how to: Estimate the economic value of a project based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes from appraisal through to production and abandonment, plan appraisal programs to prove commerciality, seek to find the right balance between proving additional reserves by further exploration or appraisal and timing of the main development concept decision, evaluate development alternatives that are typically linked to different intervals on the volume distribution curve, evaluate alternative drainage strategies and required number of templates and wells, find the optimal sequence and timing of relevant decisions in an area with hydrocarbon accumulations of varying maturity and present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations.
Upon request
1-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work
Concepts
Decision trees, problem framing, risks and uncertainties, technical versus commercial risk, value of information, value of flexibility and area plans, prior and posterior distributions, non-linearities, systematic and un-systematic risks, project versus portfolio risk, real option identification, strategic values.
Learn how to
Estimate the economic value of a project based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes from appraisal through to production and abandonment. Evaluate development alternatives and drainage strategies in a consistent way. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations.
Attitudes
Acknowledge the value of proper problem structuring of projects with different characteristics. Take responsibility to compare and prioritise opportunities with potential. Take initiative to work closely with other disciplines throughout project evaluations to ensure that main value drivers are identified and captured in the valuations.
Target group
The course is specifically designed for professionals involved in economic valuation and decision analysis comprising multi-disciplinary teams: project managers, project members, technical personnel. The case exercises are relevant for the following business areas: early phase, project development, business development.
Knowledge
Understand the value of a decision based approach in bringing a project from discovery to concept selection and development. Recognise your contribution to the problem structuring process of projects with different characteristics. Participate pro-actively to problem structuring processes in project evaluation and maturation.
Background
University level degree. Basic knowledge of fundamental economic theory is recommended and some experience from project work comprising multi-disciplinary teams is an advantage.
PAYMENT OPTIONS
ENROLMENT
This course is available upon request. Get in touch for more details.
INSTRUCTORS
More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.
OUR OTHER COURSES
General courses
S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis
6. October 20152-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More
SC01 – Framing and problem structuring
6. October 20151-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More
SC02 – Decision modelling for insight
6. October 20151-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More
SC03 – Evaluating real options
6. October 20151-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More
SC04 – Decision analysis for managers
7. October 20151-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More
SC05 – Evaluating new technologies
5. October 20151-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More
Oil & energy courses
F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip
9. January 20165-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More
E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects
10. October 20151-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More
E02 – Early phase projects
10. October 20151-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More