E01 - EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL PROJECTS

Exploration opportunities are characterised by limited data with significant uncertainties. The key value drivers are often sub-surface related, but other aspects also need to be considered as part of the economic modelling. To compare and rank alternative opportunities a realistic economic evaluation is required. Short and longer-term business plans are formulated based on the prospect valuations, available funding and strategic considerations. A proper economic evaluation is also key to maximise value creation over time and to form the basis for future growth for the company.

This 1-day course focuses on how an economic evaluation of individual prospects and the exploration portfolio as a whole can be achieved. Participants will learn how to: Estimate geological and commercial risks, apply the value of information concept for appraisal and other data gathering programs, structure the evaluation of different opportunities reflecting each prospect’s unique characteristics, communicate main value drivers for different opportunities and compare and rank prospects in a consistent way, adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues, present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. The course is specifically designed for exploration professionals involved in economic evaluation and decision analysis comprising multi-disciplinary teams: project managers, project members, technical personnel.

Regular intervals / Upon request
1-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work

Key concepts

Decision trees, problem framing, risks and uncertainties, geological versus commercial risk, value of information in appraisal / data gathering programs, prior and posterior distributions, non-linearities, systematic and un-systematic risks, project versus portfolio risk, strategic values.

Learn how to

Estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs.

Attitudes

Acknowledge the value of proper problem structuring for prospects with different characteristics. Take responsibility to compare and prioritise exploration opportunities with potential. Take initiative to work closely with other disciplines throughout prospect evaluations to ensure that main value drivers are identified and captured in the valuations.

Target group

The course is specifically designed for exploration professionals involved in economic valuation and decision analysis comprising multi-disciplinary teams: Project managers, project members, technical personnel. The case exercises are relevant for the following business areas: Exploration, business development.

Knowledge

Understand the value of a decision based approach to the economic modelling of prospects. Recognise your contribution to the problem structuring process of prospects with different characteristics. Participate pro-actively to problem structuring processes in prospect evaluation and maturation.

Background

University level degree. Basic knowledge of the fundamentals of economic theory is recommended, and some experience from project work comprising multi-disciplinary teams is an advantage.

PAYMENT OPTIONS

Student
NOK 1.850

1-day course

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ENROLMENT

This course is available for open enrolment at regular intervals, but can also be arranged upon request. Use the booking form below or get in touch for more details.

INSTRUCTORS

More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.

FAQs

Q:  What is the average number of participants?

We usually set a ceiling of maximum 25 participants at all our courses. This allows the training to be highly interactive and make good use of case exercises and open group discussions.

 

Q:  When is the next training event scheduled for and where?

Our open enrolment courses are scheduled at regular intervals throughout the year. You can search our calendar for more information. Many organisations prefer to arrange in-house training and this can be arranged upon request. Our training events will be held world-wide, although our base is in Norway.

Q:  We are looking into the possibility of running a series of courses and lunch and learns within our organisation. Can this be arranged?

Yes, a significant portion of our teaching is done in-house and in close cooperation with the client. Please get in touch to discuss your requirements and needs. Prices and timing are agreed on an individual basis for this type of assignments.

 

OUR OTHER COURSES

General courses


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Oil & energy courses


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

 

E01 - LETE- OG AVGRENSNINGSPROSJEKTER

Leteprosjekter er preget av begrenset datatilgjengelighet med betydelig usikkerhet. De viktigste verdidriverne er ofte relatert til undergrunnsusikkerhet, men andre aspekter må også vurderes som en del av den teknisk-økonomiske modelleringen. En realistisk økonomisk verdsetting er en forutsetning for å kunne sammenligne og rangere alternative prospektmuligheter. Både kortsiktige og langsiktige letestrategier formuleres basert på verdivurderinger av identifiserte prospekter, tilgjengelige midler og strategiske vurderinger. En velfundert økonomisk evaluering er også nøkkelen til å maksimere verdiskaping over tid og for å danne grunnlag for fremtidig vekst for selskapet.

Dette 1-dags kurset fokuserer på hvordan man kan gjennomføre en økonomisk vurdering av enkeltprospekter og leteporteføljen som helhet. Deltakerne vil lære å: beregne geologisk og kommersiell risiko, anvende konseptet "verdi av informasjon" i forbindelse med vurdering av avgrensningsbrønner og andre datainnsamlingsprogram, strukture evalueringen av ulike prospekter slik at de gjenspeiler hvert prospekts unike egenskaper, kommunisere de viktigste verdidrivere for ulike muligheter og sammenligne og rangere prospekter på en konsekvent måte, tilpasse hver enkelt evaluering til formålet gitt ufullstendige data og det faktum at mange av de forutsetninger som ligger til grunn ofte er konseptuelle og basert på analoger, presentere og kommunisere beslutningsalternativer, de viktigste verdidriverne, risiki og anbefalinger.

Gitte datoer / På forespørsel
1-dags kurs
Forelesninger, case-studier, gruppearbeid

Konsepter

Beslutningstrær, problemavgrensning, risiki og usikkerheter, geologisk versus kommersiell risiko, verdien av informasjon i avgrensning- og datainnsamlings-programmer, prior og posterior distribusjoner, ikkelineariteter, systematisk og usystematisk risiko, prosjekt versus porteføljerisiko, strategiske verdier.

Ferdigheter

Beregn den økonomiske verdien av et prospekt basert på en optimal sekvens av beslutninger og mulige utfall. Tilpass hver enkelt evaluering til formålet gitt ufullstendige data og det faktum at mange av de forutsetninger som ligger til grunn ofte er konseptuelle og basert på analoger. Beregn geologisk og kommersiell risiko og vurder kostnader og nytte av avgrensningsbrønner og andre datainnsamlingsprogram.

Holdninger

Anerkjenn verdien av god problemstrukturering for ulike prospekter. Ta ansvar for å sammenligne og prioritere letemuligheter med potensial. Ta initiativ til å jobbe tett med andre fagdisipliner gjennom hele prospektevalueringen for å sikre at de viktigste verdidriverne er identifisert og fanget i verdivurderingene.

Målgruppe

Fagdisipliner som er involvert i økonomisk verdsetting og beslutningsanalyse i tverrfaglige prosjektteam: Prosjektledere, prosjektmedlemmer og teknisk personell. Case-eksemplene er relevante for følgende forretningsområder: utforskning og forretningsutvikling.

Kompetanse

Forstå verdien av en beslutningsbasert tilnærming til teknisk-økonomisk modellering av leteprospekter. Vær bevisst ditt bidrag til problemstrukturerings-prosessen for ulike prospekter. Delta proaktivt i evaluering og modning av leteprospekter.

Forkunnskaper

Utdanning på universitet/høyskolenivå. En viss kjennkap til grunnleggende økonomisk teori er anbefalt, og noe erfaring fra prosjektarbeid i tverrfaglige prosjektteam er en fordel. 

BETALINGSALTERNATIVER

Student
NOK 1.850

1-dags kurs

Enkeltperson
NOK 7.500

1-4 personer

1-dags kurs

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PÅMELDING

Dette kurset har åpen påmelding på gitte datoer, men kan også arrangeres på forespørsel. Benytt påmeldingsskjema under eller ta kontakt for nærmere informasjon.

FORELESERE

Mer enn 35 års samlet erfaring innenfor fagfeltet beslutningsanalyse.

OFTE STILTE SPØRSMÅL

Q:  Hva er gjennomsnittlig antall deltakere?

Normalt setter vi et tak på maks 25 deltakere på alle kursene våre. Dette gir oss muligheten til å holde opplæringen svært interaktiv med god bruk av case-oppgaver og åpne gruppediskusjoner. 

Q:  Hvor og når holdes neste kurs?

Våre åpne kurs holdes med jevne mellomrom gjennom hele året. Se vår kursoversikt for nærmere informasjon. Mange organisasjoner foretrekker å arrangere intern opplæring, og dette kan ordnes på forespørsel. Våre kurs kan arrangeres over hele verden, selv om vår base er i Norge.

Q:  Vi ser på muligheten for å kjøre en serie med kurs og lunch&learns i vår organisasjon. Lar dette seg gjøre?

Ja, en vesentlig del av vår undervisning foregår internt og i tett samarbeid med kunden. Vennligst ta kontakt for å diskutere dine ønsker og dine behov. Priser og tidspunkt avtales på individuell basis for denne type oppdrag.

 

VÅRE ANDRE KURS

Generelle kurs


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Olje & energi kurs


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

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