SC02 - DECISION MODELLING FOR INSIGHT

Decision modelling should ultimately be an integral part of the project workflow from day one. Preliminary results provide valuable insight to both the team and decision makers in terms of decision alternatives, key risks and uncertainties, need for further data collection, strategic considerations and the optimal path forward. In an increasingly complex and uncertain environment, the need for decision modelling is more evident than ever before. This course is specifically designed for decision analysts and professionals who will be involved in decision modelling and participate in multi-disciplinary teams.

In this 1-day course you will learn how decision models can be used in order to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation over time. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is then used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. Participants will learn how to construct simple decision trees to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Use preliminary results to provide additional insight into the decision problem. Construct and interpret important decision model result plots. Use decision models to include learnable uncertainties and real options that contribute to additional value creation. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations.

Upon request
1-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work

Modelling

Decision trees, risks and uncertainties, learnable uncertainties, Monte Carlo simulation, updating distributions, tornado diagrams, distribution plots, waterfall diagrams.

Learn how to

Build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Use preliminary results to provide additional insight into the decision problem. Construct and interpret important decision model result plots.

Attitudes

Acknowledge the value of proper decision modelling. Take responsibility to build and use decision models as an integral part of the project workflow. Take initiative to work closely with other disciplines to capture key project characteristics in the decision models.

Target group

This course is specifically designed for young professionals that will be involved in decision modelling and participate in multi-disciplinary teams. The decision models and case exercises are relevant for the following business areas: exploration, early phase, project development, asset development and business development. The course can be customised to suit a certain business area specifically.

Knowledge

Understand the value of decision models and how they can be constructed and used. Recognise your contribution to successful utilisation of decision models. Participate pro-actively in the use of decision models to bring insight into the evaluation.

Background

This course has a multi-discipline profile. Both technical and economic background is suitable. Experience from cross-discipline projects teams is beneficial, and some basic knowledge about decision analysis methodology is recommended.

PAYMENT OPTIONS

Student
NOK 1.850

1-day course

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Business
NOK 5.200

5+ participants

1-day course

30% discount

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Single person
NOK 7.500

1-4 participants

1-day course

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ENROLMENT

This course can be arranged upon request. Get in touch for more details.

INSTRUCTORS

More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.

 

OUR OTHER COURSES

General courses

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Oil & energy courses

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More