E01 - EXPLORATION AND APPRAISAL PROJECTS

Exploration opportunities are characterised by limited data with significant uncertainties. The key value drivers are often sub-surface related, but other aspects also need to be considered as part of the economic modelling. To compare and rank alternative opportunities a realistic economic evaluation is required. Short and longer-term business plans are formulated based on the prospect valuations, available funding and strategic considerations. A proper economic evaluation is also key to maximise value creation over time and to form the basis for future growth for the company.

This 1-day course focuses on how an economic evaluation of individual prospects and the exploration portfolio as a whole can be achieved. Participants will learn how to: Estimate geological and commercial risks, apply the value of information concept for appraisal and other data gathering programs, structure the evaluation of different opportunities reflecting each prospect’s unique characteristics, communicate main value drivers for different opportunities and compare and rank prospects in a consistent way, adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues, present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. The course is specifically designed for exploration professionals involved in economic evaluation and decision analysis comprising multi-disciplinary teams: project managers, project members, technical personnel.

Upon request
1-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work

Key concepts

Decision trees, problem framing, risks and uncertainties, geological versus commercial risk, value of information in appraisal / data gathering programs, prior and posterior distributions, non-linearities, systematic and un-systematic risks, project versus portfolio risk, strategic values.

Learn how to

Estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs.

Attitudes

Acknowledge the value of proper problem structuring for prospects with different characteristics. Take responsibility to compare and prioritise exploration opportunities with potential. Take initiative to work closely with other disciplines throughout prospect evaluations to ensure that main value drivers are identified and captured in the valuations.

Target group

The course is specifically designed for exploration professionals involved in economic valuation and decision analysis comprising multi-disciplinary teams: Project managers, project members, technical personnel. The case exercises are relevant for the following business areas: Exploration, business development.

Knowledge

Understand the value of a decision based approach to the economic modelling of prospects. Recognise your contribution to the problem structuring process of prospects with different characteristics. Participate pro-actively to problem structuring processes in prospect evaluation and maturation.

Background

University level degree. Basic knowledge of the fundamentals of economic theory is recommended, and some experience from project work comprising multi-disciplinary teams is an advantage.

PAYMENT OPTIONS

Student
NOK 1.850

1-day course

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Business
NOK 5.200

5+ participants

1-day course

30% discount

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Single person
NOK 7.500

1-4 participants

1-day course

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ENROLMENT

This course is available upon request. Get in touch for more details.

INSTRUCTORS

More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.

 

OUR OTHER COURSES

General courses

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Oil & energy courses

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More