SC04 - DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MANAGERS

Many large corporations use a form of stage-gated process as part of their project development and review process. At each gate, the continuation of the process is typically decided by a manager or a steering committee. The decision is based on the information available at the time, including the business case, risk analysis and availability of necessary resources. Using results from a properly performed decision analysis is an excellent way to communicate decision alternatives, and to bring insight and clarity to each unique business case.

This 1-day course focuses on the management aspects of decision analysis. It covers the fundamentals required to gain insight from decision modelling results (decision trees, optimum path, best alternative decision, real option valuation, tornado diagrams and waterfall diagrams), best-practice workflows, the importance of early phase screening to identify decision alternatives, the use of different types of economic indicators, the relevance of project and portfolio risks and how to handle and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. The course is specifically designed for managers involved in stage-gated decision and review processes.

Regular intervals / Upon request
1-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work

Key concepts

Business case, optimum path, best alternative decision, value of flexibility, real option valuation, strategic values, project and portfolio risks, economic indicators, capital constraints, decision criteria.

Learn how to

Interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks, handle and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints.

Attitudes

Acknowledge the value of project teams that utilise decision analysis to evaluate and present business cases for different types of projects. Take responsibility to assure that decision analysis is an integral part of the project workflow from day one. Take initiative to work closely with the project teams throughout project evaluations and reviews to ensure that key decisions and main value drivers are identified and captured in the valuations.

Target group

The course is specifically designed for managers involved in stage-gated decision processes and review processes. The case exercises are relevant for the following business areas: exploration, early phase, project development, asset development, business development. This course can be customised to suit your business area specifically.

Knowledge

Understand how additional value is created by raising the awareness of important management aspects of decision analysis. Recognise your contribution to successful implementation and exploitation of decision analysis in relevant projects. Motivate project teams to adopt decision modelling early on in project evaluation and maturation.

Background

University level degree. Basic understanding of net present value considerations is recommended, and experience from project development and review processes is beneficial.

PAYMENT OPTIONS

Student
NOK 1.850

1-day course

Single person
NOK 7.500

1-4 participants

1-day course

ENROLMENT

This course is available for open enrolment at regular intervals, but can also be arranged upon request. Click to enrol or get in touch for more details.

  • There are currently no scheduled dates for this event

Get in touch

 

INSTRUCTORS

More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.

FAQs

 

Q:  What is the average number of participants?

We usually set a ceiling of maximum 25 participants at all our courses. This allows the training to be highly interactive and make good use of case exercises and open group discussions.

 

Q:  When is the next training event scheduled for and where?

Our open enrolment courses are scheduled at regular intervals throughout the year. You can search our calendar for more information. Many organisations prefer to arrange in-house training and this can be arranged upon request. Our training events will be held world-wide, although our base is in Norway.

Q:  We are looking into the possibility of running a series of courses and lunch and learns within our organisation. Can this be arranged?

Yes, a significant portion of our teaching is done in-house and in close cooperation with the client. Please get in touch to discuss your requirements and needs. Prices and timing are agreed on an individual basis for this type of assignments.

OUR OTHER COURSES

General courses


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Oil & energy courses


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More