E02 - EARLY PHASE PROJECTS

Choosing the right development concept is a key decision in any oil and gas project, and the decision maker is usually faced with the situation of having to decide between alternative development concepts under significant remaining uncertainty. Choosing the optimal development concept is usually directly linked to the appraisal strategy, the value of information that is revealed and the company risk tolerance profile. Such considerations need to be reflected in the problem structure and overall evaluation in order to move the project forward and to maximise long-term value creation.

This 1-day course focuses on how decision analysis is used in early phase projects and development projects, to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. It shows how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the economic evaluation of each development alternative. Participants will learn how to: Estimate the economic value of a project based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes from appraisal through to production and abandonment, plan appraisal programs to prove commerciality, seek to find the right balance between proving additional reserves by further exploration or appraisal and timing of the main development concept decision, evaluate development alternatives that are typically linked to different intervals on the volume distribution curve, evaluate alternative drainage strategies and required number of templates and wells, find the optimal sequence and timing of relevant decisions in an area with hydrocarbon accumulations of varying maturity and present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations.

Regular intervals / Upon request
1-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work

Concepts

Decision trees, problem framing, risks and uncertainties, technical versus commercial risk, value of information, value of flexibility and area plans, prior and posterior distributions, non-linearities, systematic and un-systematic risks, project versus portfolio risk, real option identification, strategic values.

Learn how to

Estimate the economic value of a project based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes from appraisal through to production and abandonment. Evaluate development alternatives and drainage strategies in a consistent way. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations.

Attitudes

Acknowledge the value of proper problem structuring of projects with different characteristics. Take responsibility to compare and prioritise opportunities with potential. Take initiative to work closely with other disciplines throughout project evaluations to ensure that main value drivers are identified and captured in the valuations.

Target group

The course is specifically designed for professionals involved in economic valuation and decision analysis comprising multi-disciplinary teams: project managers, project members, technical personnel. The case exercises are relevant for the following business areas: early phase, project development, business development.

Knowledge

Understand the value of a decision based approach in bringing a project from discovery to concept selection and development. Recognise your contribution to the problem structuring process of projects with different characteristics. Participate pro-actively to problem structuring processes in project evaluation and maturation.

Background

University level degree. Basic knowledge of fundamental economic theory is recommended and some experience from project work comprising multi-disciplinary teams is an advantage.

PAYMENT OPTIONS

Student
NOK 1.850

1-day course

Single person
NOK 7.500

1-4 participants

1-day course

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ENROLMENT

This course is available for open enrolment at regular intervals, but can also be arranged upon request. Use the booking form below or get in touch for more details.

INSTRUCTORS

More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.

FAQs

Q:  What is the average number of participants?

We usually set a ceiling of maximum 25 participants at all our courses. This allows the training to be highly interactive and make good use of case exercises and open group discussions.

 

Q:  When is the next training event scheduled for and where?

Our open enrolment courses are scheduled at regular intervals throughout the year. You can search our calendar for more information. Many organisations prefer to arrange in-house training and this can be arranged upon request. Our training events will be held world-wide, although our base is in Norway.

Q:  We are looking into the possibility of running a series of courses and lunch and learns within our organisation. Can this be arranged?

Yes, a significant portion of our teaching is done in-house and in close cooperation with the client. Please get in touch to discuss your requirements and needs. Prices and timing are agreed on an individual basis for this type of assignments.

 

OUR OTHER COURSES

General courses


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Oil & energy courses


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

 

E02 - TIDLIGFASE PROSJEKTER

Valg av riktig utbyggingsløsning er en viktig avgjørelse i ethvert olje- og gassprosjekt, og beslutningstakeren står gjerne ovenfor en situasjonen hvor det må velges mellom alternative utbyggingsløsninger mens det foreligger betydelig gjenværende usikkerhet. Valg av den optimale utbyggingsløsningen er vanligvis direkte knyttet til avgrensningsstrategien, verdien av informasjon og selskapets risikotoleranse. Slike hensyn må gjenspeiles i problemstrukturen for å kunne drive prosjektet fremover og sikre at langsiktig verdiskaping maksimeres.

Dette 1-dags kurset fokuserer på hvordan beslutningsanalyse brukes i tidlig-fase prosjekter, for å bringe et funn fra avgrensning til konseptvalg og utbygging. Den viser hvordan alle elementer fra reservoar til marked kan inkluderes i en teknisk-økonomisk evaluering av hvert enkelt utbyggingsalternativ. Deltakerne vil lære å: Beregne den økonomiske verdien av et prosjekt basert på en optimal sekvens av beslutninger og mulige utfall fra avgrensning til produksjon og nedstengning, planlegge avgrensningsprogrammer for å påvise kommersialitet, søke å finne den rette balansen mellom å påvise ytterligere reserver ved videre leting eller avgrensning og vurdere timingen av utbyggingsbeslutningen, evaluere ulike utbyggingsalternativer som vanligvis er knyttet til ulike intervaller på volumfordelingskurven, evaluere alternative dreneringsstrategier og det nødvendige antall brønnrammer og brønner, finne den optimale sekvensen og timingen på relevante beslutninger i et område med hydrokarbonakumulasjoner av ulik modenhet og presentere og kommunisere beslutningsalternativer, de viktigste verdidriverne, risiki og anbefalinger.

Gitte datoer / På forespørsel
1-dags kurs
Forelesninger, case-eksempler, gruppearbeid

Konsepter

Beslutningstrær, problemavgrensning, risiki og usikkerheter, teknisk versus kommersiell risiko, verdien av informasjon, verdien av fleksibilitet og områdeplaner, prior- og posterior distribusjoner, ikke-lineariteter, systematisk og usystematisk risiko, prosjekt- versus porteføljerisiko, identifisering av realopsjoner, strategiske verdier.

Ferdigheter

Beregn den økonomiske verdien av et prosjekt basert på en optimal sekvens av beslutninger og usikre utfall fra avgrensing, til produksjon og nedstengning. Vurder utbyggingsalternativer og dreneringsstrategier på en konsistent måte. Presenter og kommuniser beslutningsalternativer, de viktigste verdidriverne, risiko og anbefalinger.

Holdninger

Erkjenn verdien av god problem-strukturering for ulike prosjekter. Ta ansvar for å sammenligne og prioritere muligheter med potensial. Ta initiativ til å jobbe tett med andre fagdisipliner gjennom hele prosjektevalueringen for å sikre at de viktigste verdidriverne er identifisert og fanget i verdivurderingene.

Målgruppe

Fagdisipliner som er involvert i økonomisk verdsetting og beslutningsanalyse i tverrfaglige prosjektteam: prosjektledere, prosjektmedlemmer og teknisk personell. Case-eksemplene er relevante for følgende forretningsområder: tidligfase, utbygging og forretningsutvikling.

Kompetanse

Forstå verdien av en beslutningsbasert tilnærming til å bringe et prosjekt fra funn til konseptvalg og utbygging. Vær bevisst ditt bidrag til problemstruktureringsprosessen for ulike prosjekter. Delta proaktivt i evaluering og modning av prosjekter.

Forkunnskaper

Utdanning på universitet/høyskolenivå. En viss kjennkap til grunnleggende økonomisk teori er anbefalt, og noe erfaring fra prosjektarbeid i tverrfaglige prosjektteam er en fordel.

BETALINGSALTERNATIVER

Studente
NOK 1.850

1-dags kurs

Enkeltpersoner
NOK 7.500

1-4 personer

1-dags kurs

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PÅMELDING

Dette kurset har åpen påmelding på gitte datoer, men kan også arrangeres på forespørsel. Benytt påmeldingsskjema under eller ta kontakt for nærmere informasjon.

FORELESERE

Mer enn 35 års samlet erfaring innenfor fagfeltet beslutningsanalyse.

OFTE STILTE SPØRSMÅL

Q:  Hva er gjennomsnittlig antall deltakere?

Normalt setter vi et tak på maks 25 deltakere på alle kursene våre. Dette gir oss muligheten til å holde opplæringen svært interaktiv med god bruk av case-oppgaver og åpne gruppediskusjoner. 

Q:  Hvor og når holdes neste kurs?

Våre åpne kurs holdes med jevne mellomrom gjennom hele året. Se vår kursoversikt for nærmere informasjon. Mange organisasjoner foretrekker å arrangere intern opplæring, og dette kan ordnes på forespørsel. Våre kurs kan arrangeres over hele verden, selv om vår base er i Norge.

Q:  Vi ser på muligheten for å kjøre en serie med kurs og lunch&learns i vår organisasjon. Lar dette seg gjøre?

Ja, en vesentlig del av vår undervisning foregår internt og i tett samarbeid med kunden. Vennligst ta kontakt for å diskutere dine ønsker og dine behov. Priser og tidspunkt avtales på individuell basis for denne type oppdrag.

 

VÅRE ANDRE KURS

Generelle kurs


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Olje & energi kurs


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

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