SC03 - EVALUATING REAL OPTIONS

A real option can be defined as the right, but not an obligation, to undertake a business decision. It is often characterised by step-wise decisions over time, flexibility and the modelling of value (and cost) of information. An option’s potential value is usually connected to the magnitude of the underlying uncertainty and it is therefor key to identify the underlying value drivers. As new information is revealed and uncertainty is updated, management may have flexibility to alter its initial strategy for a project in order to capitalise on favourable future opportunities or to act in order to mitigate losses. Real options are used to explicitly incorporate management flexibility into the analysis of investment projects. Real options allow the company to benefit from uncertainty in the underlying value drivers because management adapts and is able to create value by reacting to both negative and positive outcomes. This flexibility can represent a substantial part of the value of a project. 

This 1-day course focuses on how real options can be fully integrated with other key project decisions and uncertainties and included in the overall project timeline. Participants will, among other things, learn how to:

  • Use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects
  • Agree on which uncertainties and project decisions are the most critical in relation to the real options
  • Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options
  • Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside
  • Present and communicate the possible outcomes of real options, decision alternatives, main value drivers and risks
Regular intervals / Upon request
1-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work

Key concepts

Real option identification, underlying uncertainties, new information, imperfect information, Bayes’ theorem, management flexibility, economic value, cost versus upside, fall-back cases, competing alternatives and options.

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Learn how to

Use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside.

Attitudes

Acknowledge the potential value, but also the risks of real options. Take responsibility to identify and compare real options, alternative decisions and fall-back cases. Take initiative to work closely with other contributing disciplines throughout projects to capitalise on the options.

Target group

This course is specifically designed for professionals involved in projects that are in the early phases where real options may provide an important contribution to overall value creation: project managers, project members, technical personnel. The course can be customised to suit a certain business area specifically.

Knowledge

Understand the potential value of real options and the importance of early identification of the options. Recognise your contribution to successful incorporation of real options into the decision basis. Participate pro-actively to identification and evaluation of real options as well as competing alternatives.

Background

University level degree.  Technical or economic backgrounds are both suitable. Prior knowledge of the economic theory behind real options is not required. Experience from project work in multidisciplinary project teams is an advantage. Basic knowledge of decision analysis methodology is recommended.

PAYMENT OPTIONS

Student
NOK 1.850

1-day course

Single person
NOK 7.500

1-4 participants

1-day course

ENROLMENT

This course is available for open enrolment at regular intervals, but can also be arranged upon request. Click to enrol or get in touch for more details.

[eo_events event_tag="%SC03%" showpastevents=false no_events="There are currently no scheduled dates for this event"]

Get in touch

 

INSTRUCTORS

More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.

FAQs

 

Q:  What is the average number of participants?

We usually set a ceiling of maximum 25 participants at all our courses. This allows the training to be highly interactive and make good use of case exercises and open group discussions.

 

Q:  When is the next training event scheduled for and where?

Our open enrolment courses are scheduled at regular intervals throughout the year. You can search our calendar for more information. Many organisations prefer to arrange in-house training and this can be arranged upon request. Our training events will be held world-wide, although our base is in Norway.

Q:  We are looking into the possibility of running a series of courses and lunch and learns within our organisation. Can this be arranged?

Yes, a significant portion of our teaching is done in-house and in close cooperation with the client. Please get in touch to discuss your requirements and needs. Prices and timing are agreed on an individual basis for this type of assignments.

OUR OTHER COURSES

General courses


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Oil & energy courses


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

 

SC03 - EVALUERING AV REALOPSJONER

En realopsjon kan defineres som en rett, men ikke plikt, til å foreta en forretningsbeslutning. Realopsjoner har typisk karakter av trinnvise beslutninger over tid, fleksibilitet og man kan modellere verdien (og kostnaden) av den informasjon som vil avdekkes underveis. Den potensielle verdien av en opsjon er vanligvis koblet til størrelsen på den underliggende usikkerheten, og det nøkkelen er derfor å identifisere de underliggende verdidriverne. Ettersom ny informasjon blir avdekket og usikkerhetsbilde blir oppdatert til å reflektere dette, kan ledelsen dra nytte av en fleksibilitet til å endre sin opprinnelige strategi for et prosjekt for å kapitalisere på gunstige fremtidige muligheter, eller ta grep for å redusere tap. Realopsjoner brukes for å eksplisitt innlemme ledelsesfleksibilitet i analyser av investeringsprosjekter. Realopsjoner gir selskapet en mulighet til å dra nytte av usikkerheten i de underliggende verdidrivere, fordi ledelsen tilpasser seg og er i stand til å skape verdier gjennom å reagere på både negative og positive resultater. Denne fleksibiliteten kan utgjøre en betydelig andel av verdien av et prosjekt.

Dette kurset fokuserer på hvordan realopsjoner kan være fullt ut integrert med andre sentrale beslutninger og usikkerheter i prosjektet og inkludert i prosjektets overordnede tidslinje. Deltakerne vil lære å:

  • Bruke en strukturert tilnærming for å identifisere realopsjoner i ulike typer prosjekter
  • Bli enige om hvilke usikkerheter og prosjektbeslutninger som er mest kritisk i forhold til realopsjonene
  • Innlemme realopsjoner i den innledende problemstrukturen og anslå verdien av opsjonene
  • Veie kostnadene ved å inkludere fleksibilitet i prosjektet mot sannsynligheten for å oppnå verdipotensialet som ligger i oppsiden
  • Presentere og kommunisere mulige utfall av realopsjonene, beslutningsalternativer, de viktigste verdidriverne og risiki
Gitte datoer / På forespørsel
1-dags kurs
Forelsesninger, case-eksempler, gruppearbeid

Konsepter

Identifisering av realopsjoner, underliggende usikkerheter, ny informasjon, ufullstendig informasjon, Bayes 'teorem, ledelsesfleksibilitet, økonomisk verdi, kostnader versus verdi av oppside, fall-back løsninger, konkurrerende alternativer og opsjoner.

Ferdigheter

Bruk en strukturert tilnærming til å identifisere realopsjoner i ulike typer prosjekter. Innlemme realopsjoner i den innledende problemetstrukturen og anslå verdien av opsjonene. Veie kostnadene ved å innlemme fleksibilit i prosjektet mot sannsynlighet for og verdipotensialet i oppsiden.

Holdninger

Forstå den potensielle verdien, men også risikoen ved realopsjoner. Ta ansvar for å identifisere og sammenligne realopsjoner, alternative beslutninger og fall-back løsninger. Ta initiativ til å jobbe tett med andre medvirkende fagdisipliner gjennom prosjektene for å dra nytte av opsjonene.

Målgruppe

Dette kurset er spesielt utviklet for fagpersoner som er involvert i prosjekter i en tidlig fase hvor realopsjoner kan gi et viktig bidrag til den samlede verdiskapingen: prosjektledere, prosjektmedlemmer som utfører tekniske evalueringer eller økonomisk analyse, samt andre disipliner som medvirker i fremstilling av beslutningsunderlaget.

Kompetanse

Forstå den potensielle verdien av realopsjoner og betydningen av tidlig identifisering av alternativene. Bli bevisst hvordan du kan bidra for å innlemme realopsjoner på en riktig måte i beslutningsgrunnlaget. Delta proaktivt til å identifisere og evaluere realopsjoner og konkurrerende alternativer.

Forkunnskaper

Utdanning på universitet/høyskolenivå. Teknisk eller økonomisk fagbakgrunn er hensiktsmessig. Forkunnskaper i realopsjonsteori er ikke nødvendig. Erfaring fra prosjektarbeid i tverrfaglige prosjektteam er en fordel. Grunnleggende kunnskaper om metodikk for beslutningsanalyse anbefales.

BETALINGSALTERNATIVER

Student
NOK 1.850

1-dags kurs

Enkeltperson
NOK 7.500

1-4 deltakere

1-dags kurs

PÅMELDING

Dette kurset har åpen påmelding på gitte datoer, men kan også arrangeres på forespørsel. Klikk for å registrere deg eller ta kontakt for nærmere informasjon.

[eo_events event_tag="%SC03-nb-2%" showpastevents=false no_events="Det er for tiden ingen oppsatt dato for dette arrangementet."]

Kontakt oss

 

FORELESERE

Mer enn 35 års samlet erfaring innenfor fagfeltet beslutningsanalyse.

OFTE STILTE SPØRSMÅL

Q:  Hva er gjennomsnittlig antall deltakere?

Normalt setter vi et tak på maks 25 deltakere på alle kursene våre. Dette gir oss muligheten til å holde opplæringen svært interaktiv med god bruk av case-oppgaver og åpne gruppediskusjoner. 

Q:  Hvor og når holdes neste kurs?

Våre åpne kurs holdes med jevne mellomrom gjennom hele året. Se vår kursoversikt for nærmere informasjon. Mange organisasjoner foretrekker å arrangere intern opplæring, og dette kan ordnes på forespørsel. Våre kurs kan arrangeres over hele verden, selv om vår base er i Norge.

Q:  Vi ser på muligheten for å kjøre en serie med kurs og lunch&learns i vår organisasjon. Lar dette seg gjøre?

Ja, en vesentlig del av vår undervisning foregår internt og i tett samarbeid med kunden. Vennligst ta kontakt for å diskutere dine ønsker og dine behov. Priser og tidspunkt avtales på individuell basis for denne type oppdrag.

 

VÅRE ØVRIGE KURS

Generelle kurs


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Olje & energi kurs


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

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