S01 - COMBINE EXPERIENCE, INTUITION AND ANALYSIS

The field of decision analysis can help you transform your organisation’s problem solving capabilities. “Decision Analyst” is established as a desirable job title across industries and describes someone who is in a prime position to influence business decisions through their experience and abilities to prepare a clear and comprehensive decision basis. The field of decision analysis has a long history and the methodology is well founded within economic theory.

In this 2-day course you will learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. Participants will become enablers in the process of evaluating key aspects of a given decision situation to provide clarity and to aid decision makers in arriving at a set of recommended actions. The methodology presented provides a structured and consistent framework to model and analyse different problems with the goal of enhancing the quality of our decision-making and creating additional value through project optimisation. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, communication and computation.

Regular intervals / Upon request
2-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work

DAY 1

Introduce the subject field that everybody may not know so well. Learn how simple techniques and tools can be used to get an overview of different decision-making situations. Calculate profitability for the available alternatives and ensure proper uncertainty management. We look at an example from private sector to learn how SWOT analyses can be utilised in the formulation of a corporate strategy.

Don’t be late for registration - coffee and fruit are served between 08:00 and 09:00.
The lecture starts at 09:00!

09:00 - 12:00

Introduction

  • Welcome
  • About the instructors
  • Introduction of the subject field decision analysis
  • Film and introduction example
  • Obtain all relevant issues
  • Sort and organise
  • Focus on strategy decisions
  • Formulating distinctly different strategies
  • Comparison of strategies

 

13:00 - 17:00

Analysis

  • Summary of the intro example
  • Business example
  • SWOT analysis
  • Issue list
  • Strategic decisions
  • Problem structure and analysis
  • Recommendation and action plan
  • Cash flows
  • Economic valuation

DAY 2

Provide insight into how different analytical techniques can help optimize value creation in projects. By using an example from the agricultural sector, along with the theoretical framework, we show how strategic decision-making processes can be structured, how the revealing of early-stage information can contribute to optimisation, how uncertainties can be handled and how real options can increase profitability.

09:00 - 12:00

Technology as value driver

  • Case-introduction
  • Situation overview
  • Group work
  • Strategy tables
  • Decision trees
  • Optimum path

 

13:00 - 17:00

Handling of uncertainties

  • Real options
  • Value of information
  • Expected value
  • Uncertainty modelling
  • Project vs. corporate risk
  • Summary

 

Key concepts

Problem framing, issue lists, decision hierarchies, strategy tables, decision trees, influence diagrams, real options, value of information, non-linearities, (un)systematic risks, strategic values.

Learn how to

Structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Present and communicate decision alternatives.

Attitudes

Take responsibility to use a structured approach from day one. Take initiative to work closely with other disciplines. Ensure that key decisions and main value drivers are captured.

Target group

Professionals involved in technical and economic evaluation. Multi-disciplinary teams: project managers and technical personnel. This course can be customised to suit your business area specifically

Knowledge

Understand the value of using a structured approach. Recognise your contribution to the processes. Participate pro-actively.

Background

University level degree. Basic knowledge of fundamental economic theory is recommended.

INSTRUCTORS

More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.

SOCIAL

We believe that great learning is also associated with great food in a pleasant environment. Therefore, we usually serve a small snack from Handwerk during the breaks. For lunch we serve food from Barramon, Norway's only Pintxos bar or Scandinavia, which is a Nordic food concept. On the evening of day 1 we invite you to dinner at Hitchhiker where they serve street food-inspired food that is both exciting and filling. Food and soft drinks are always included in our course fee.

PAYMENT OPTIONS

Student
NOK 2.900

2-day course

Single person
NOK 11.900

1-4 participants

2-day course

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ENROLMENT

This course is available for open enrolment at regular intervals, but can also be arranged upon request. Use the booking form below or get in touch for more details.

PRACTICAL INFORMATION

Vulkan is centrally located in Oslo between St. Hanshaugen in the west, Grünerløkka in the east and Alexander Kielland's place in the north. The area is a fusion of culture and creative business with lots to experience within culture, education, nightlife, food and drink.

Trams 11, 12 and 13 stop at Schous place. Here you can easily go down to Nordre gate and across the bridge to Vulkan. Bus 54 and 34 stop in Møllerveien. Go down Møllerveien and turn into Dansens Hus. Subway / train: If you want to take a subway or train, it is only a 15 minute stroll from the Railway Market.

If you come by car, you can park in Vulkan P-house, with over 450 parking spaces. Here are also charging offers for electric cars with 100 safe and modern charging stations. The entrance to the P-house is from Maridalsveien, at Westerdals.

Do you need accommodation? We recommend the Scandic hotel - it is clean, nice and you look straight down at Mathallen where the course is held. Remember to state the discount code you receive when signing up.

DecisionNodes is located here - you may have visited us earlier? In the floor below us you will find Handwerk, serving wonderful pastries and our regular sweets supplier for our courses.

Here the course is held, in well lit rooms on the second floor inside Mathallen. Enter the main entrance and take the stairs (or the elevator) onto the second floor. The staircase is in the middle of the corridor once you have entered the outside glass door. Upstairs on the second floor you will see signs giving further directions. Are you out early? Take a look inside Mathallen first.

FAQs

Q:  What is the average number of participants?

We usually set a ceiling of maximum 25 participants at all our courses. This allows the training to be highly interactive and make good use of case exercises and open group discussions.

 

Q:  When is the next training event scheduled for and where?

Our open enrolment courses are scheduled at regular intervals throughout the year. You can search our calendar for more information. Many organisations prefer to arrange in-house training and this can be arranged upon request. Our training events will be held world-wide, although our base is in Norway.

Q:  We are looking into the possibility of running a series of courses and lunch and learns within our organisation. Can this be arranged?

Yes, a significant portion of our teaching is done in-house and in close cooperation with the client. Please get in touch to discuss your requirements and needs. Prices and timing are agreed on an individual basis for this type of assignments.

 

OUR OTHER COURSES

General courses


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Oil & energy courses


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More