SC02 - DECISION MODELLING FOR INSIGHT

Decision modelling should ultimately be an integral part of the project workflow from day one. Preliminary results provide valuable insight to both the team and decision makers in terms of decision alternatives, key risks and uncertainties, need for further data collection, strategic considerations and the optimal path forward. In an increasingly complex and uncertain environment, the need for decision modelling is more evident than ever before. This course is specifically designed for decision analysts and professionals who will be involved in decision modelling and participate in multi-disciplinary teams.

In this 1-day course you will learn how decision models can be used in order to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation over time. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is then used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. Participants will learn how to construct simple decision trees to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Use preliminary results to provide additional insight into the decision problem. Construct and interpret important decision model result plots. Use decision models to include learnable uncertainties and real options that contribute to additional value creation. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations.

Regular intervals / Upon request
1-day course
Lectures, case studies, group work

Modelling

Decision trees, risks and uncertainties, learnable uncertainties, Monte Carlo simulation, updating distributions, tornado diagrams, distribution plots, waterfall diagrams.

Learn how to

Build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Use preliminary results to provide additional insight into the decision problem. Construct and interpret important decision model result plots.

Attitudes

Acknowledge the value of proper decision modelling. Take responsibility to build and use decision models as an integral part of the project workflow. Take initiative to work closely with other disciplines to capture key project characteristics in the decision models.

Target group

This course is specifically designed for young professionals that will be involved in decision modelling and participate in multi-disciplinary teams. The decision models and case exercises are relevant for the following business areas: exploration, early phase, project development, asset development and business development. The course can be customised to suit a certain business area specifically.

Knowledge

Understand the value of decision models and how they can be constructed and used. Recognise your contribution to successful utilisation of decision models. Participate pro-actively in the use of decision models to bring insight into the evaluation.

Background

This course has a multi-discipline profile. Both technical and economic background is suitable. Experience from cross-discipline projects teams is beneficial, and some basic knowledge about decision analysis methodology is recommended.

PAYMENT OPTIONS

Student
NOK 1.850

1-day course

Single person
NOK 7.500

1-4 participants

1-day course

ENROLMENT

This course is available for open enrolment at regular intervals, but can also be arranged upon request. Click to enrol or get in touch for more details.

[eo_events event_tag="%SC02%" showpastevents=false no_events="There are currently no scheduled dates for this event"]

Get in touch

 

INSTRUCTORS

More than 35 years of combined experience in the field of decision analysis.

FAQs

Q:  What is the average number of participants?

We usually set a ceiling of maximum 25 participants at all our courses. This allows the training to be highly interactive and make good use of case exercises and open group discussions.

 

Q:  When is the next training event scheduled for and where?

Our open enrolment courses are scheduled at regular intervals throughout the year. You can search our calendar for more information. Many organisations prefer to arrange in-house training and this can be arranged upon request. Our training events will be held world-wide, although our base is in Norway.

Q:  We are looking into the possibility of running a series of courses and lunch and learns within our organisation. Can this be arranged?

Yes, a significant portion of our teaching is done in-house and in close cooperation with the client. Please get in touch to discuss your requirements and needs. Prices and timing are agreed on an individual basis for this type of assignments.

 

OUR OTHER COURSES

General courses


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Oil & energy courses


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

 

SC02 - MODELLERING FOR INNSIKT

Beslutningsmodellering bør være en integrert del av prosjektets arbeidsflyt fra dag én. Ved å synliggjøre beslutningsalternativer, sentrale risiki og usikkerheter, behov for ytterligere datainnsamling, strategiske hensyn og den optimale veien fremover, får både prosjektet og beslutningstakerne betydelig innsikt på et tidlig stadium. I en verden preget av stadig mer kompleksitet og usikkerhet, er behovet for beslutningsmodellering mer tydelig enn tidligere. Dette kurset er spesielt utviklet for beslutningsanalytikere og fagfolk som vil være involvert i beslutningsmodellering og delta i tverrfaglige team.

I dette 1-dags kurset vil du lære hvordan beslutningsmodeller kan brukes for å øke sannsynligheten for å fange opp viktige elementer i tidlig fase og maksimere verdiskapning over tid. Kursdeltakerne blir veiledet gjennom prosessen med å bygge en enkel beslutningsmodell ved hjelp av Excel fra Microsoft og @Risk fra Palisade*. Modellen blir så brukt i gruppeøvelser for å illustrere verdien av riktig modellering, informative resultatgrafer og beste praksis for arbeidsflyt. Deltakerne vil lære å konstruere enkle beslutningstrær for å reflektere problemstruktur for ulike beslutningsproblemer. Bygging av beslutningsmodeller for å øke sannsynligheten for å fange hva som er viktig tidlig. Bruk av foreløpige resultater for å gi større innsikt i beslutningsproblemet. Sammenstilling og tolkning av viktige resultatgrafer fra beslutningsmodeller. Bruk av beslutningsmodeller for å avdekke usikkerhet og identifisere reelle valg som bidrar til ytterligere verdiskapning. Presentere og kommunisere beslutningsalternativer, de viktigste verdidriverne, risiki og anbefalinger.

Gitte datoer/ På forespørsel
1-dags kurs
Forelesninger, case-eksempler, gruppearbeid

Modellering

Beslutningstrær, risiki og usikkerheter, oppdaterte usikkerheter, Monte Carlo simulering, oppdatering av distribusjoner, tornadodiagrammer, distribusjonsdiagrammer, vannfallsdiagrammer.

Ferdigheter

Bygge beslutningsmodeller for å øke sannsynligheten for tidlig å fange opp hva som er viktig. Bruke foreløpige resultater for å gi dypere innsikt i beslutningsproblemet. Sammenstille og tolke viktige resultatgrafer fra beslutningsmodellene.

Holdninger

Erkjenn verdien av god beslutningsmodellering. Ta ansvar for å bygge og benytte beslutningsmodeller som en integrert det av prosjektets arbeidsflyt. Ta initiativ til å jobbe tett med andre fagdisipliner for å fange alle vesentlige prosjektegenskaper i beslutningsmodellene.

 

Målgruppe

Unge fagfolk som vil bli involvert i beslutningsmodellering og delta i tverrfaglige team. Beslutningsmodeller og case-eksempler er relevant for følgende arbeidsområder: forretningsutvikling, prosjektevaluering, og videreutvikling av eksisterende virksomhet. Kurset kan skreddersys til ditt arbeidsområde spesielt.

Kompetanse

Forstå verdien av beslutningsmodeller og hvordan de kan bygges opp og benyttes. Erkjenne ditt bidrag til god utnyttelse av beslutningsmodeller. Bidra proaktivt til bruk av beslutningsmodeller for å frembringe større innsikt i evalueringen.

Forkunnskaper

Kurset har en tverrfaglig profil. Teknisk eller økonomisk fagbakgrunn er hensiktsmessig. Erfaring fra prosjektarbeid i tverrfaglige prosjektteam er en fordel. Grunnleggende kunnskaper om metodikk for beslutningsanalyse anbefales.

BETALINGSALTERNATIVER

Student
NOK 1.850

1-dags kurs

Enkeltperson
NOK 7.500

1-4 deltakere

1-dags kurs

PÅMELDING

Dette kurset har åpen påmelding på gitte datoer, men kan også arrangeres på forespørsel. Klikk for å registrere deg eller ta kontakt for nærmere informasjon.

[eo_events event_tag="%SC02-nb-2%" showpastevents=false no_events="Det er for tiden ingen oppsatt dato for dette arrangementet."]

Kontakt oss

 

FORELESERE

Mer enn 35 års samlet erfaring innenfor fagfeltet beslutningsanalyse.

OFTE STILTE SPØRSMÅL

Q:  Hva er gjennomsnittlig antall deltakere?

Normalt setter vi et tak på maks 25 deltakere på alle kursene våre. Dette gir oss muligheten til å holde opplæringen svært interaktiv med god bruk av case-oppgaver og åpne gruppediskusjoner. 

Q:  Hvor og når holdes neste kurs?

Våre åpne kurs holdes med jevne mellomrom gjennom hele året. Se vår kursoversikt for nærmere informasjon. Mange organisasjoner foretrekker å arrangere intern opplæring, og dette kan ordnes på forespørsel. Våre kurs kan arrangeres over hele verden, selv om vår base er i Norge.

Q:  Vi ser på muligheten for å kjøre en serie med kurs og lunch&learns i vår organisasjon. Lar dette seg gjøre?

Ja, en vesentlig del av vår undervisning foregår internt og i tett samarbeid med kunden. Vennligst ta kontakt for å diskutere dine ønsker og dine behov. Priser og tidspunkt avtales på individuell basis for denne type oppdrag.

 

VÅRE ØVRIGE KURS

Generelle kurs


S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

S01 – Combine experience, intuition and analysis

6. October 2015

2-day course: Learn the fundamentals of decision analysis. How to structure different types of decision problems. Identify key aspects, main value drivers and relevant risks. Optimise sequences of decisions and possible outcomes. Evaluate costs and benefits of data gathering programs. Identify real options, non-linearities and strategic values. Present and communicate decision alternatives. … Read More

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

SC01 – Framing and problem structuring

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn different framing and problem structuring techniques to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on, align team members and maximise value creation. Learn how to identify key decisions and relevant risks and uncertainties as early as possible. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

SC02 – Decision modelling for insight

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to build decision models to increase the likelihood of capturing what is important early on. Construct models to reflect the problem structure for various decision problems. Course participants are guided through the process of building a simple decision model using Excel by Microsoft and @Risk by Palisade*. The model is used in team exercises to illustrate the value of proper modelling, insightful result plots and best practice workflows. … Read More

SC03 – Evaluating real options

SC03 – Evaluating real options

6. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to use a structured approach to identify real options in different types of projects. Incorporate the real options into the initial problem structure and estimate the value of the options. Weigh the cost of incorporating flexibility into the project against the probability and value potential of capturing upside. … Read More

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

SC04 – Decision analysis for managers

7. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to interpret and gain insight from decision modelling results, establish best-practice workflows, use different types of economic indicators, distinguish between relevant and irrelevant project risks and optimise projects and portfolios under capital constraints. Examples are used to illustrate how high quality decisions derive from the right combination of thought, collaboration, computation and communication. … Read More

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

SC05 – Evaluating new technologies

5. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to utilise technology readiness levels, technology novelty categories and decision/governance processes to evaluate and compare relevant technologies. Calculate key technology risks and incorporate them into the problem structure. Communicate main value drivers for the technology options as well as for the project as a whole and compare competing alternatives in a consistent way. Learn to differentiate between enabler and enhancer technologies and value potential on project and portfolio level. … Read More

Olje & energi kurs


F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

F01 – Multi-disciplinary field trip

9. January 2016

5-day field trip: Learn how to extract critical geological information and understand its implication for volume estimation, producability, drainage strategy, drilling strategy, development concept and value. Identify key value drivers and contribute to constructive multi-disciplinary discussions at the intersection between geo-modelling and project modelling using decision models and decision analysis methodology. … Read More

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

E01 – Exploration and appraisal projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to estimate the economic value of a prospect based on an optimised sequence of decisions and possible outcomes. Adapt a fit for purpose approach given the incomplete data availability and the fact that many of the assumptions made are often conceptual and based on analogues. Estimate geological and commercial risks and evaluate the costs and benefits of appraisal and other data gathering programs. … Read More

E02 – Early phase projects

E02 – Early phase projects

10. October 2015

1-day course: Learn how to bring a discovery from appraisal to concept selection and development. Learn how all elements from reservoir to market can be included in the analysis and how different appraisal programs, development alternatives and drainage strategies can be compared. Present and communicate decision alternatives, main value drivers, risks and recommendations. … Read More

© 2020 DecisionNodes All Rights Reserved.