Software

Decision analysis software is used to visualise and provide insight to problem situations that are too complex to model using traditional tools. Typically, forward looking strategies where decisions are interlinked over time or where predictions about the future are highly uncertain.

dNodes is our preferred tool for decision modelling. It is based on our best-practices developed over the years of consulting. The tool allows the user to combine state of the art decision tree modelling with Excel. It also includes ready-made modules for different industries and problem situations.

Solving real decision problems

  • Drag and drop decision nodes, chance nodes and data nodes to build the main problem structure.
  • Load data from excel sheets; either through our ready-made modules or own-developed models.
  • Calculate the tree, highlight the optimum path and compare branches for additional insight.

Key features

Decision trees

Decision nodes, chance nodes, data nodes, copy/paste branches, optimum path, project explorer, property panel, data view panel, pdf export.

Excel integration

Build your own excel sheets and link result profiles (typically cash flows) to data nodes in the decision tree. Simple or complex models. Coming soon.

Modules

Ready made modules for early phase oil&gas projects and drilling projects. Custom-made modules for particular industries/projects  on request.

Monte Carlo simulation

Full distribution library. Correlations. Seed. Iterations. Stochastic profiles in the decision tree. Optimum path based on expected value.

Comparison & Aggregation

Compare nodes in the decision tree. Data view panel to compare probabilistic results. Or compare or aggregate projects at the portfolio level.

Results & reports

Net present value (NPV) and other economic indicators. Pre/post tax. Tornado diagrams. Cash flows. Pdf-reports.

Oil & Gas Module

  • Early phase field development
  • Prospects, discoveries, area plans
  • Project comparison, ranking and aggregation
  • Full economics, tax calculations, fiscal modelling
  • Ensures consistency and comparability across projects
  • Improves communication between team members
  • Review and quantify risks systematically
  • Gives management early warnings
  • Shows range of outcomes and reasons behind

Use case

As an uncertainty specialist I am responsible for integrating relevant data from for all disciplines in order to evaluate different options in our project. I start with building the problem structure in the decision tree. I continue to model possible outcomes in the oil and gas module. I link result profiles to the data nodes in the tree to calculate the optimum path. I generate relevant result graphs to gain valuable insight to the problem with focus on value, risk and uncertainties.

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Nodes

We are a small and focused management consulting company. Decision analysis and cross discipline collaboration have been key cornerstones throughout our careers. We have seen how improper analysis can lead projects astray, but we have also experienced how a structured approach to decisions, risks and uncertainties can contribute to sustainable growth for an entreprise. We deliver the ability to tackle and solve challenging decision situations and engage our clients in exploiting their full value potential.